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Research and evidence
Every study, note and data file we have published, from training stability in softmax attention to tokenizer cost by language, with its status and date. Current, provisional and withdrawn results are all listed, each linked to its original page.
- Updated
- 11 Nov 2026
- Status tags
- Current, Provisional, Withdrawn
- Open data
- 12 files, md5 checksums
- Mechanisms
- Not disclosed
Status at a glance
Every item on this page carries one status tag. The tag tells you how far to trust the result.
- Current The result stands as published, within the scope stated on its page.
- Provisional Measured, and pre-registered or reproducible, but at diagnostic scale or with a small sample. We expect to test it again at larger scale.
- Withdrawn No longer evidence. The page stays online, marked as withdrawn, so that old links and citations still resolve.
- Open beta A product in public testing. Its outputs are descriptive and have not been validated.
| Line of work | Status | Date | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rational Attention: training stability | Provisional | Evidence bundle 13 Jun 2026 | Results and data |
| Z-Next: fixed-size session state at 1B | Current | Measured 17–21 Aug 2026 | Summary |
| The LLM Token Tax: 204 languages | Current | 20 Jul 2026 | Study |
| Model X-Ray: legacy findings | Withdrawn | 4–6 Sep 2026 | Correction |
Rational Attention Provisional
Rational Attention is our drop-in replacement for softmax attention. It adds zero parameters. We do not disclose how it works; we publish what it does when we measure it, and the data files to check our numbers.
The comparison holds everything else fixed: the same model body, optimizer, seed and data, with no stabilisers on either side, at a high learning rate. We ran it at about 601M, 1B, 3B and 7B parameters on H100 and H200 GPUs. The 3B and 7B runs were short diagnostic runs of at most 236M tokens.
Training stability against softmax
| Measure | Bare softmax | Rational Attention |
|---|---|---|
| Gradient-norm excursions (spikes) | 29 | 0 |
| Peak gradient norm | 42.9 | 6.6 |
| Process capability, Cpk | 0.30 | about 1.59 |
Cpk is the process-capability index from manufacturing quality control: it says how consistently a process stays inside its limits. By common convention, 1.33 or more is called capable and below 1 is out of specification. Our note on gradient-norm control charts explains the method; the control-limit setting is not disclosed.
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Compute overhead against tuned softmax | 1% or less; MFU at parity |
| Kernel equivalence: our tuned GPU kernel against a reference implementation, forward and backward | bf16 cosine similarity about 0.99999 |
| Multi-GPU training: 3B model on 2 H200 GPUs with DDP | about 17% MFU, about 25k tokens/s |
Rational Attention costs about the same as softmax and stays stable where bare softmax does not. It is no faster. The claim holds only at the diagnostic scale above.
Loss: a small edge from learning-rate headroom
| Comparison | Difference (bpb) |
|---|---|
| 3B, best against best | −0.0146 |
| 7B, best against best | −0.0172 |
| Equal learning rate, both sides stabilised | +0.0153 |
At 3B and 7B, our best Rational Attention run reached a slightly lower held-out loss than our best softmax run. We read this as a direction only, and we attribute it to learning-rate headroom: Rational Attention trains at learning rates where bare softmax fails. When we ran both at the same learning rate with both stabilised, softmax came out 0.0153 bpb ahead, the same size as the edge. We call that parity. With two sizes we cannot fit a scaling law.
Effect on hallucination: tested, null
We tested whether Rational Attention reduces hallucination. A controlled test came back null, so we claim no such effect. The test has not been run at behavioural scale.
Scale, and what is not done yet
- Every result above is diagnostic scale (sub-Chinchilla) and provisional. None of it is a production training result.
- Not run yet: a properly budgeted (Chinchilla-sufficient) 3B validation with pre-registered pass and stop thresholds; downstream task quality; the hallucination test at behavioural scale.
- Compatibility was tested with two optimisers (Muon and AdamW), mixture-of-experts models, bf16 and multi-GPU training. The full list of configurations is in the technical brief. That does not establish compatibility with every architecture, kernel or training pipeline.
- Our quantiser for this operator is in development. On a 3B diagnostic checkpoint, int8 changed held-out loss by 0.0000 bpb and int4 by +0.0005 bpb. The saving is in memory only.
- Other teams have published alternatives to softmax attention; we discuss related work in the technical brief under NDA.
Evidence files
The public bundle holds the full data: every experiment, every training step we evaluated and every stability statistic. What we withhold is the recipe: the formula, kernel internals, exact learning rates, schedule and SPC thresholds.
| File | What it contains |
|---|---|
| Full results report (.md) | The complete write-up: how the runs were isolated, all results and tables, methodology, provenance and limits. Start here. |
| Experiment ledger (.csv) | All 17 runs: bpb, gradient-norm median and peak, excursions, Cpk, defect rate and MFU per run. |
| 3B convergence curve (.csv) | Held-out bpb at each of 36 evaluation steps for Rational Attention and tuned softmax, with the per-step difference. |
| Stability pairs (.csv) | Stabiliser-free softmax against Rational Attention at the same learning rate: gradient-norm median and peak, excursions, Cpk and defect rate. |
| Kernel equivalence and efficiency (.csv) | Forward and backward cosine against the reference implementation, memory use against our naive reference, and a deliberately corrupted control that the check correctly rejects. |
| Scale summary (.md, .csv) | The 3B and 7B best-against-best loss differences and the 7B differences in the converged phase. Two points, so a direction only. |
| Stability benchmark summary (.md, .csv) | The headline stability table (Cpk, defect rate, peak gradient norm, MFU parity, kernel equivalence) in prose and as data. |
| Evaluation methodology (.md) | One page on pre-registration, matched-step comparison, deterministic recompute, gradient-norm SPC and the md5 chain. |
| Quant research methodology card (.md) | How we evaluate our financial forecasting engine: walk-forward training, multiple horizons, leak checks and placebo tests. Methodology only, no performance figures. It sits in the same bundle but is not Rational Attention evidence. |
| Reproducibility manifest (.txt) | The md5 checksum of each of the 11 files above. Our internal raw logs are not public. |
Z-Next Current
Z-Next is our own language-model architecture. It has no attention layer and no KV cache. Everything it holds about a conversation lives in a fixed-size state of about 5.2 MiB, and the size is enforced in code. When the input grew from 952 to 31,926 tokens, the state stayed byte-identical.
The v4.3 base model has about 947 million parameters. We trained it from scratch on 10.0B tokens of a FineWeb-Edu sample and English Wikipedia with a 64k SentencePiece tokenizer, in one continuous run of 29.97 hours on 4 H200 GPUs, with no divergence and no intervention. It is English only. Validation perplexity is 15.1 at a context of 512 tokens.
| Model | Score | Difference against twin |
|---|---|---|
| Z-Next base | 45.24 | +0.62 [−0.06, +1.28] |
| VAN-1B base | 44.62 | |
| Z-Next after instruction tuning (benchmark variant) | 45.75 | +2.51 [+1.79, +3.25] |
| VAN-1B after the same tuning | 43.24 |
The twin shares the corpus and tokenizer but not the exact training recipe: a small share of Z-Next's pre-training windows also carried program-generated material that the transformer did not see. The base result therefore shows that removing attention cost no measurable quality. It does not show an architectural advantage. After instruction tuning, most of the gap comes from the twin dropping (LAMBADA −8.50, BoolQ −5.63 points), while Z-Next itself gained about 0.5.
The product variant scores 45.34. It passed 14 of 17 pre-registered gates, so it is recorded as a fail. It is still our best chat variant, so it runs the demos, labelled as not passing.
Not solved: long-context recall is near chance (0.306 against 0.25) at 1B parameters and 10B training tokens, as it is for the same-size transformer. Not done: anything beyond 1B, a matched comparison with other fixed-state models, independent reproduction, safety tuning. The model card has the full list. Weights are not public.
- Z-Next 1B model card: details, evaluation, limitations and access.
- Z-Next model card: measured 17–21 Aug 2026, with a follow-up on 23 Aug 2026. It replaces our older technical page and corrects one statement in it (below).
- Z-Next system card and VAN-1B model card, and every other model on the models index.
Studies and notes
Every research note we have published, newest first. Each keeps its original address.
Chimera-1: two skills, one model, training-free
22 Jul 2026 Current
A training-free TIES merge of two light specialists on Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct gained +8.8 and +25.0 points on the two target skills, with all eight reported general benchmarks inside a ±2-point band. We evaluated it ourselves and no outside party has reviewed it.
Read the studyKimi K2 on the language tax
21 Jul 2026 Current
Kimi K2's tokenizer ranks 4th among the tokenizers in the Token Tax study. Its vocabulary is 28% larger than DeepSeek-V3's, yet it is marginally less efficient overall, and most of the extra vocabulary goes to Chinese.
Read the measurementTwo layers of the language tax
21 Jul 2026 Provisional
Tokens per character stays constant across model sizes within a family. Every model we tested answered in other languages at about 0.3 to 0.7 times its English length; that result comes from 12 questions and two model families.
Read the studyThe LLM Token Tax
20 Jul 2026 Current
Outside English the same sentence can take 2 to 10 times as many tokens, depending on the tokenizer. Measured on 9 public tokenizers and the languages of FLORES-200.
See the leaderboardWhen the small run lies about the big one
5 Jul 2026 Current
Four measurement traps that fooled us when we estimated large models from small runs. In one, a real gap sat about 40 times below step-to-step noise. The runs are single-seed, and no scaling law is fitted.
Read the noteThe Muon optimizer under FSDP
30 Jun 2026 Current
Distributed Muon matched single-GPU Muon bit for bit across four matrix shapes. Short 3B and 7B mixture-of-experts runs on 2 H200 GPUs reached 16–20% MFU per GPU; nothing larger has been trained, and end-to-end cost is not measured yet.
Read the notePredictive maintenance without failure data
21 Jun 2026 Provisional
A health indicator that needs no failure data reached median monotonicity of +0.96 and +0.98 on 32 run-to-failure bearings from two public benchmarks. It beats classic scalar indicators but not raw FFT, and it has not yet run in the field.
See the resultsPut your gradient norm on a control chart
15 Jun 2026 Current
A methodology note on treating the gradient norm as a process to be charted, so that stability becomes a number (Cpk, excursion rate). The control-limit calibration is not disclosed.
Read the noteIn multi-horizon forecasting, the short horizon lies first
15 Jun 2026 Current
With limited data the shortest forecast horizon overfits first and looks like a real edge. The note covers temporal placebos and leak-free point-in-time backtests; it discloses no strategy, data or performance figures.
Read the noteA 1B model should route, not remember
15 Jun 2026 Provisional
A design argument from our 1B assistant work: let a small model route to tools and cite sources instead of storing facts in its weights. The results it reports are qualitative and preliminary.
Read the noteThe Z-Next technical report is summarised above, and the Rational Attention data is in its evidence files. Notes we withdrew are listed in the next section.
Withdrawn and corrected
When a result does not survive our checks, we say what failed, mark the page and keep its address online so citations do not break. Nothing in this section is current evidence.
Model X-Ray legacy findings Withdrawn
The interpretations we once published from Model X-Ray outputs were withdrawn on 4 September 2026, with follow-up corrections to 6 September. The correction record keeps the full dated record.
Model X-Ray runs today as an Open beta for eligible public models up to the 7B class, with payments off. Its reports are descriptive and are not validated diagnostics. The Model X-Ray status page (last entry 11 Nov 2026) describes the beta's current scope.
| Page | What it was | Status |
|---|---|---|
| We spent three weeks trying to kill our own finding | Model X-Ray research note | Withdrawn 4 Sep 2026 |
| Twin loss curves, one operator apart | Model X-Ray matched-pair note | Withdrawn 4 Sep 2026 |
| Lesion-response note | Model X-Ray lesion-response study | Withdrawn 4 Sep 2026 |
| Noise floors for internal LLM measurements | Model X-Ray measurement-floor note | Withdrawn 4 Sep 2026 |
| Instruction tuning anatomy | Model X-Ray instruction-tuning note | Withdrawn 4 Sep 2026 |
| Diagnostic comparison report | Model X-Ray sample report | Withdrawn 4 Sep 2026 |
| Mistral sample report | Model X-Ray sample report | Withdrawn 4 Sep 2026 |
| Qwen 0.5B sample report | Model X-Ray sample report | Withdrawn 4 Sep 2026 |
| X-Ray twin study checkpoints (Hugging Face) | Rational and vanilla checkpoints with seed controls | Withdrawn as evidence; archived |
| Datasets llm-xray-lesion-scans and model-xray-gallery | Archived study materials | Withdrawn as evidence; archived |
Other retired or corrected claims
- Chimera-1 and Model X-Ray. The merge note once said that Model X-Ray measurements predicted merge success and guided which skills were kept. That interpretation is withdrawn. The merge measurements, the baseline comparison, the general checks and the negative control are retained. The note's rule of thumb for when merges help is a working hypothesis from one campaign.
- Frankenstein merge note. Withdrawn Our earlier merge write-up at /note-frankenstein-merge.html is retired. Its address now forwards to the Chimera-1 note, which replaced it.
- Language notes. The token tax, Kimi K2 and language-generation notes had Model X-Ray references and sales wording removed in the September correction. Their tokenizer and length results did not depend on Model X-Ray and are retained.
- Rational Attention loss edge. We no longer describe the small loss edge as an architectural advantage. With both sides stabilised at the same learning rate it is parity, as shown above. Our control-chart note describes an earlier headline edge of ours that turned out to be a baseline collapsing at a learning rate it could not tolerate.
- Z-Next public statements. 10 Nov 2026: the Hugging Face card was corrected on three points to match the model card on this site: the description of the training data, the benchmark status of the chat variant, and the removal of the session-count comparison. Our older technical page said no chat-tuned build had run the classic benchmarks; the product variant has, and the model card, which replaces that page, gives its score. The report's earlier Model X-Ray interpretation was removed in September.
- Sessions per GPU. An earlier home page compared how many idle sessions fit on one 16 GB GPU for Z-Next and its twin. It covered one configuration, against a twin whose cache was not optimised, so we no longer show it.
How we run studies
The mechanisms stay private; the way we test is below. The methodology one-pager has the short version.
Pre-registration
Before a run, we write down the question, the metric, the comparison and the rule for pass or fail. The rule does not change after the run: under such a rule the Z-Next product variant is recorded as a fail.
Matched comparisons
The two sides of a comparison share the model body, optimizer, seed and data, and we compare them at the same training step. An unmatched comparison once showed us a gap of about 0.06 bpb; at the same step the real gap was about 0.002 bpb.
Deterministic recompute and sealed result files
When a run finishes, we seal its result files by recording their md5 checksums. Our headline numbers regenerate deterministically from those sealed files; we do not copy them by hand from notes or slides. Anyone can check the public files against the manifest.
Seed-null and negative controls
Before we call a difference an effect, we compare it with the difference we get by changing only the random seed, or with the run-to-run noise of the setup. In the Chimera-1 study that noise was about ±2 points, so we do not interpret differences of that size. We also keep negative controls: in Chimera-1, a merge with a parent that had drifted far from the shared base, which collapsed to unusable output; and in the kernel check, a deliberately corrupted variant that the check correctly rejects.
Stability as a number
We log the gradient norm on a control chart and report stability as a capability index and an excursion count.
Nulls and failures published so far
The hallucination test that came back null, the product variant that failed its own gates, three merge variants that did not beat the plain baseline, a data-pipeline artifact that faked a 0.11 bpb edge, and the Model X-Ray withdrawal above.
Discuss a study
Questions about a result, its data or a collaboration.